The marquee race next Tuesday will be the primary election in Charlotte. There’s competitive primaries on both sides.

For the Democrats, former Mecklenburg County Commission chair Jennifer Roberts appears to be in the best position. A poll from the Charlotte Observer found her with 39%, a point away from avoiding a runoff. Her task is to get her voters out and avoid any major mistakes.

But Roberts’ momentum has slowed recently. She had a big fundraising haul early in the summer but her advantage over her opponents declined in August. In addition, she’s coming under fire for vague stands and for touting education and women’s health, issues that most would say do not fall under the purview of the city’s mayor. Last week the Observer endorsed City Councilman David Howard, stating that he was the Democratic candidate with the best vision and knowledge of the issues.

Primaries are tough to poll, especially in low-turnout municipal races. The Observer poll might be completely wrong, which means there will be quite a bit of uncertainty going into Tuesday night. If no Democratic candidate prevails, the race will go to a runoff.

On the Republican side, the result looks more clear. Former City Councilman Edwin Peacock led businessman Scott Stone in the Observer poll and more importantly has the name recognition and financial advantage. It would be quite an embarrassment if Peacock lost.

No matter what, Democrats will be favored to hold the mayoralty. But the black candidates David Howard and Michael Barnes will have less appeal in the suburban areas. If they win next Tuesday, Republicans will have a fighting chance. But this is a Charlotte quite different from the one that elected Pat McCrory time after time. Pretty much everything will have to go right for the GOP. If that happens, they’ll have something to celebrate this November.