Another round of polls came in over the weekend showing Thom Tillis still trailing Kay Hagan. The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov poll has Hagan leading by one point after trailing by one a month ago. The NBC/Marist poll has her up four.

For Tillis to win, the trajectory of the race must change. He’ll need to run a flawless campaign down the stretch and be opportunistic. Many of the factors that shape the political environment are beyond his control but he can take advantage of the opportunities that do arise.

Tillis needs to hope that the electorate becomes focused more on national issues than state ones. With the Islamic State and ebola entering the public consciousness, he has a chance here. Republicans have always been good at fear-mongering and George Bush rode scare tactics to victory in 2004.

This week, he has an opportunity to reintroduce himself to the electorate in debates on Tuesday and Thursday nights. In the first debate, he came off as a bit cocky and condescending. He needs to figure out how to tone down the arrogance and show Hagan respect. In essence, he needs to be more likable.

A mistake by the Hagan campaign could also change the current direction of the race. However, so far, Hagan and her allies have been almost flawless. Again, the debates offer Tillis an opportunity, but trying to force an error by being aggressive runs the risk of reinforcing the image of a cocky, arrogant politician.

Tillis also needs to hope that his base shows up because the Democratic base is. He’s struggled to endear himself to either the Tea Party or social conservatives. They are unlikely to come out to vote for him but they might come out to vote against Obama and Hagan. The GOP is trying to make that happen by airing Obamacare ads again and bringing in people like Rand Paul. Look for Ted Cruz before this thing ends.

Republicans are pushing the story that North Carolina Senate races break late. But given the length of this campaign, it is late. There’s very little voters don’t know about Kay Hagan and what they know about Thom Tillis doesn’t thrill them. He’ll needs some lucky breaks in the next four weeks and he’ll need the savvy to take advantage of them.