Public Policy Polling’s new poll finds Donald Trump with his largest lead in the Republican primary to date. The numbers:

Trump – 33%
Cruz – 16%
Carson/Rubio – 14%
Bush – 5%
Christie – 4%
Kasich – 3%
Fiorina/Paul – 2%
Graham/Santorum – 1%
Pataki/Gilmore – 0%
Undecided – 3%

Looking at these figures, the one thing that sticks out, at least to me, is the 3% undecided figure. How could only 3% of Republicans be undecided? The truth is that GOP voters have a tendency to ‘park’ their votes. A few candidates have some very soft support – see Ben Carson, who is on the decline.

Trump is not one of those candidates. He has about 25% of the vote that is never going to leave him. The real question is whether or not he can expand his support beyond the core, because we have all heard the conventional wisdom that Trump will be finished once more mainstream Republicans coalesce behind an alternative. Is this line of thinking true? Happily, PPP has provided us some head-to-head numbers, of Trump against a number of alternatives:

Trump 64%, Bush 30%
Trump 51%, Carson 41%
Trump 48%, Cruz 41%
Trump 53%, Rubio 42%

As we can see, the idea that Trump’s ceiling is well below 50% is erroneous, at least in North Carolina. Perhaps the Republican electorate here is more conservative than the one nationally, but I think one would probably see similar numbers nationwide.

The good news for the establishment types is that just about everyone is competitive with Trump in a head-to-head. With one major exception: Jeb Bush. Bush’s campaign apparently is going to go with the strategy of nuking all the other more mainstream candidates in order to set himself up as the anti-Trump, but if this poll is any indication that’s not going to work. In fact, a Bush vs. Trump two-way is probably the best way to guarantee a Trump nomination.

On a related note, let’s look at favorability, because that’s still a major indicator of who has the potential to grow their support and who doesn’t:

Carson 64/23 (+41)
Trump 63/26 (+37)
Cruz 61/26 (+35)
Rubio 56/26 (+30)
Fiorina 45/30 (+15)
Bush 31/48 (-17)

Just because a candidate is perceived favorably doesn’t mean they’re actually going to win a lot of votes. I’m thinking of Dr. Carson here. But in a primary, having low favorables against a slew of candidates who are much better-liked is not good at all. It’s not that Republicans like Bush but have other candidates they like better, it’s that they just plain don’t like him. And unless he can up those favorable numbers, no one is going to give him serious consideration.

Finally, turning to the general election, we find that the Republicans all have modest leads on Clinton, with Dr. Carson doing the best. Trump, Cruz, and Rubio all lead her by 4% (the lack of an electability gap between Rubio and the others is somewhat surprising.)

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary remains as exciting as ever.

To sum things up, I think this poll, and others like it, should put fear in the hearts of establishment Republicans who are fretting that Trump will take over their party. Their fears are not unfounded. Most importantly, the idea that Trump is dominating a small faction of Republicans and is a ‘niche’ candidate with a low ceiling is an assertion not grounded in fact.

The good news for those who fear nominee Trump: this poll is already outdated. Yesterday Trump unveiled a plan proposing a moratorium on Islamic immigration in this country, which elicited sharp reactions from Jeb Bush (who called Trump “unhinged”), Dick Cheney, and Paul Ryan, among others. These people can now take solace in knowing that, while Trump may have escaped unharmed from other controversies, this latest one will surely sink him. Surely.