Senate District 15: State Sen. John Alexander (R) vs. Laurel Deegan-Fricke (D)

The state’s 15th Senate District featured the closest General Assembly contest of the 2014 election. The Republican, John Alexander, defeated Democratic former mayor of Raleigh Tom Bradshaw by only 701 votes after a recount. The district, located in northwestern Wake County, is among the most competitive Senate districts in the state and contains a large number of highly-educated swing voters.

Expect a sleepier race this year. This time the Democratic nominee is Laurel Deegan-Fricke, who owns and operates a Native American nonprofit. Deegan-Fricke hasn’t raised much money, as her first quarter fundraising report (released only a few weeks ago) testifies. Beyond that, the incumbent appears to be well-liked, with a business-friendly, moderate profile that fits the district.

And yet, there’s always the specter of Donald Trump hovering over every race – and the idea that Donald Trump as the presidential nominee of the Republican Party will lead to disastrous losses for the GOP up and down the board. In that case, an area like the 15th district could see a massive revolt, with downballot Democrats benefiting.

So, I’m only giving this one a rating of “Likely Republican”, simply due to the possibility of the Trump effect and the dynamics of the district. Regardless, it’s clear that Deegan-Fricke will need substantial investment on the part of the state Democratic Party in order to get her message across. Even in the event of a Trump disaster, voters here are smart enough to know the difference between Trump and a traditional Republican like Alexander. I doubt we’ll see a recount here again this year.

District Rating: Likely Republican

Counties in district: Wake (part)

2014 Result
50.4% Alexander
49.6% Bradshaw

Voter Registration
36.3% Republican
33.6% Democrat
29.8% Unaffiliated

83.1% White
9.0% Black
8.0% Other

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
52.8% Romney
46.0% Obama

2012 Governor
58.3% McCrory
39.3% Dalton

2010 Senate
57.5% Burr
40.1% Marshall