In a nutshell, Jeb Bush is a moderate who can’t claim an electability advantage over his opponents.
Republican primary voters care about two things: conservatism, and electability. Despite their reputation for shooting themselves in the foot, GOP voters tend to pick the candidate who can appeal to the broadest range of Americans. Even though they lost, both John McCain and Mitt Romney were probably the most electable candidates in their respective primary fields. Because of this advantage, they were able to get away with not being the most conservative.
A strong contender for the Republican nomination will be someone who is both conservative and doing well in the national polls. Right now, that’s the position occupied by Marco Rubio and Scott Walker. The worst type of candidate is one who is both perceived as too liberal by the base and weak as a national candidate. That’s the place occupied right now by Chris Christie – and, to a lesser extent, Jeb Bush.
Jeb’s rationale for running is that he’s the only candidate who can move the party forward in a changing America, while sticking to conservative principles. The problem is that Marco Rubio is already running on that platform, and his case is more compelling. Not only can he appeal to a demographically changing America – he’s part of that demographic change! – but his message of change is compounded by his relative youth and not coming from one of the most powerful family dynasties in American politics.
With that in mind, why should Republicans choose Jeb? As long as there are other candidates perceived both as more conservative and with a better chance of winning the White House, GOP voters aren’t going to give him a serious look for very long. That’s why a Jeb nomination is probably dependent on two of the other members of the ‘Big 3’ – Rubio and Walker – flaming out. Scandals, gaffes, moments that prove these two aren’t ready for prime time will eventually be reflected in the national polls. Only when Bush is perceived as being more electable than his prospective opponents will GOP voters start to come around. At this point, it’s very much a question if that will ever be the case.
Once again dude you natter on about things that matter not or little.
It’s amazing to me that Jeb’s called a “moderate.” This guy was the driving force behind the Terry Schiavo fiasco. And he privatized absolutely everything, from Medicaid to state park management. Not even Phil Berger’s done that (yet).
“Jeb’s rationale for running is that he’s the only candidate who can move the party forward in a changing America, while sticking to conservative principles.”
If by “a changing America” you mean changing demographically, then one could argue Bush might have a leg up on most of the other GOP candidates. Speaking Spanish fluently instead of acting like that’s a crime as so many Republicans seem to do will help him with Latino voters. And having a wife who is a Latina won’t hurt. But Republican primary voters tend to be pretty xenophobic. He has to get the nomination first.
“Marco Rubio …. – he’s part of that demographic change!”
I don’t think that’s enough. First of all, latino voters aren’t a monolith. And all the various subgroups of latinos aren’t going to automatically flock to Rubio just because he’s a Cuban from South Florida. As much as the currently lily white GOP likes to think that having a minority or two balances out doing zero outreach to minorities and showing outright hostility toward them, it just doesn’t work that way. Hell, they haven’t had a politician of major stature speak seriously to attracting minority voters since Jack Kemp. If Rubio were the nominee, I wouldn’t bet on him getting a higher percentage of the Latino vote than George W. Bush did.
I find it somewhat amazing that Republican primary voters would find Jebbers insufficiently conservative. The guy is on the record as favoring privatizing Social Security for crying out loud. He’s fully on board with repealing the entire 20th century and ushering in a new Gilded Age. What do they want?
I know the answer. They want him to favor deporting all the brown people and teaching in science glass that Jesus rode a dinosaur. They want full on nuts.
I’ll get the popcorn ready. I can’t wait for the “debates”.