Rubio’s Risk-taking Might Pay Off – Again

by | Sep 23, 2015 | Carolina Strategic Analysis, Features, National Politics | 5 comments

Marco Rubio just might epitomize the old cliche spouted by hacks that elections are marathons and not sprints. He’s in a good position right now, especially considering where he started out. Most people thought Rubio was going to bow out in favor of his old mentor Jeb Bush. Now, his decision to run looks to have been a smart one. In Florida, the state’s junior senator is polling better than the guy who was governor there for eight years. Nationally, they’re running about even.

Despite being seen as more of a centrist in a very conservative GOP field, Rubio once was a Tea Party hero. When he decided to challenge Governor Charlie Crist in the Republican primary for Senate, he was given little chance. It appeared to be a huge risk politically, but as we’ve seen, Rubio is not a politician afraid to take risks. Within months, he went from trailing Crist by 30 points to leading him by the same amount. In the end, Crist dropped out of the primary, and the GOP, and ran third-party. In the general, history repeated itself, and despite looking strong initially, Crist faded and Rubio won nearly a majority in a three-person race.

Rubio prevailed not only because he was a solid conservative, but because he’s a strong candidate. He has a compelling biography and there’s probably no one running for the presidency on the GOP side who is better at connecting with voters. His speech at the 2012 Republican convention showcased his talents as a speaker. For a while, he was on the vice presidential shortlist for Mitt Romney.

Then, everything went south. Rubio started working with Chuck Schumer on “immigration reform” which conservatives saw as code for amnesty. Seeing Rubio used as GOP point man for the project diminished him significantly in the eyes of the base, and his standing in the (extremely early) polls plummeted. Indeed, that debacle is his biggest weakness going forward. It’s something that Donald Trump hit him on the other day, referring to him as “Marco Amnesty.” So far, Rubio has been one of the few Republican candidates to avoid the wrath of Trump. We’ll see if he can survive once Republicans start to seriously scrutinize his record.

We’re not there yet. The primary voters are still shopping around and looking at candidates. Right now, they’re looking at Carly Fiorina. They might start looking at Rubio but first he needs a breakout moment. If he gets that chance, the GOP might conclude that Marco is their man. It’s early, but it’s a credit to him and his campaign that he’s in position to peak at just the right moment. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: keep an eye on Rubio.

5 Comments

  1. A.D. Reed

    Rubio is the “intellectual” of the Republican party (along with Paul Ryan), just as Jeb! is “the smart one” of the Bushes.

    He’s where he is because he has the backing — the investment — of one Florida billionaire car salesman, who paid for his law school, subsidized his salary, pays his wife a salary, and gave (or “lent”) him enough money over the past ten years to keep him out of bankruptcy court and debtor’s prison.

    But anyone who actually is smart and well educated and has some depth AND breadth of knowledge recognizes in Rubio only the smartest guy in a room full of mediocrity, chosen for the brass ring by his elders and betters, but who has yet to live up to all his vaunted promise. Even as a senator he has not a single accomplishment, unless you count the lowest voting record of all 100 senators.

    As for his “fresh new ideas” and a “new generation,” every single proposal he’s made (or flip-flopped on) is almost identical to everything Dubya and Mittster and the rest of the GOP crowd crows about. I keep waiting for an original idea, and some true spark of brilliance, but all that shows up is a second-rate mind with a prettier face than the rest of his party.

  2. Brad

    If Rudio gets the nomination, then either a Carson or Florina VP would be a disaster. As a Democrat, I would be thrilled, but he should try to find a running mate who isn’t incompetent or a liar.

  3. Ebrun

    Rubio is my favorite candidate now that Walker has withdrawn. The GOP needs to put up a young, dynamic conservative to take on old, stale septuagenarians like Sanders, Biden and (soon to be) Hillary. Rubio would present a vivid contrast to those aging liberals and their stagnant ideas and policies.

    Another potential advantage would be provided if the GOP nominated a Rubio/Carson ticket that would refute the slanderous charge that Republican voters are hostile toward minorities. Or a Rubio/Florina ticket that would contradict the Dems claim that the GOP is ant- women.

    • TY Thompson

      If he gets the nom, picking Cruz for his ticket is the better choice. Locking up both Texas and Florida early would allow them to focus earlier on the upper midwest battlegrounds.

  4. Apply Liberally

    Thanks for the head’s-up to keep an eye on Rubio. We need that sort of advice.

    Like we needed the same “hot tip” —from a wide assortment of GOP analysts over the last two years— to keep an eye on Christie and Jeb.

    And who can forget that “blessing” bestowed by the Koch brothers upon Scott Walker several months ago? That Koch quasi-endorsement of the Wisconsin governor sure worked out well, didn’t it?

    Funny how we never got such “inside info” about Trump or Fioria, who now lead the Cown Car in the polling. Wonder why we didn’t get any early and secret thumbs-up on those two…..?

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