My first PoliticsNC “predictions” post was published last week. In it, I tried to project how the North Carolina Republican Primary results would look. I placed a particular emphasis on how ideology would interact with geography. Now it’s time for a postmortem. All data are drawn from the New York Times’ election page.

My projections held a few basic premises:

• Trump would win the state based on “broadly distributed support.”
• However, the race would be closer than previous primaries.
• His strongest region would be the interior Piedmont/Foothills manufacturing belt.
• Cruz would prevail in Eastern North Carolina.
• The I-85 corridor would be an establishment-friendly battleground, yet Trump would outperform expectations.
• Cruz would perform very poorly along I-85.

My first predictions were mostly right. Trump won the primary, and he took counties in all of the state’s regions. The final result–a 4% Trump victory–was closer than usual. I was wrong in predicting that he would do best in the Textile Belt. Instead, as elsewhere, he was strongest in counties with large non-white populations.He over-performed his statewide margin by a full 10% in the heavily African-American counties along the Virginia border. His performance was even better in the Sandhills and southern Piedmont, home not only to large African-American populations but to many Native American as well.

Despite the inner coastal plain’s reputation as “Jessecrat Country,” I accurately predicted that Cruz would defeat Trump in that region. Cruz won Wilson, Pitt and Greene Counties, and came within thirty-three votes of winning Wayne County. These counties form the core of Eastern North Carolina. It appears that Cruz’s strength among Evangelicals held steady in the state. I was not quite right that the map would resemble Perdue-McCrory, but most of Trump’s counties are either lightly populated or are more dominated by retirees than they were in 2008.

Now we come to my personal disaster zone, the line of urbanized counties where my crystal ball lies in broken shards on I-85. I wrote, “Cruz will receive minimal support there.” True to his wily ways, the Texas Senator won every county stretching from the RTP exurb of Johnston all the way to Forsyth. It appears that the #nevertrump crowd was able to cohere around an alternative.

Not everything about the urban-Piedmont section was wrong. Less ideological Republicans asserted themselves by supporting Kasich in healthy numbers. I can also make a case that Trump over-performed by sweeping Greater Charlotte. His numbers there spanned from 32.5% in Mecklenburg to 45.8% in Lincoln. So all was not lost from a prediction standpoint.

By my count, that gives me a record of 4/6. Others may think that assessment too generous given the epic debacle that was I-85. But that’s to the readers–for whose attention I am genuinely grateful–to decide.