The race for NC-13 is heating up. Last week, the DCCC released a poll showing Kathy Manning up four over freshman incumbent Republican Ted Budd. Yesterday, the Cook Political Report upgraded the race from Lean Republican to tossup. PoliticsNC also calls the race a tossup.

Both Manning and Budd have been up on TV for a while, so voters in that district are getting to know them pretty well. However, the ads have been mostly positive so far. Expect the negative campaign to begin in the next week or so. The SuperPacs will certainly be weighing in on this one.

Manning has put together a strong campaign. She’s outraised Budd all cycle. She’s got a professional team that’s putting together a strong ground campaign and  they’ve been knocking on doors throughout the summer.

Budd, in contrast, worried Republicans in Washington. He didn’t put in the work to raise the money he should have, giving Manning an opening. He’s also a one-term Congressman who won the GOP nomination in a 2016 primary that had 17 candidates. In the winner-take-all affair, he had far less than a majority in the low-turnout race and then faced an underfunded opponent in November. In other words, he’s both relatively untested and relatively unknown.

As of June 30, Manning had raised $1.9 million and had $1.3 million cash on hand. Budd had raised $1.2 million and had $780,000 cash on hand. An incumbent trailing an opponent significantly in fundraising is a sign of trouble.

In addition, Manning’s gender may play a factor. Women seem to be leaving the GOP.  An LA Times poll showed women prefer a Democrat on the generic ballot by 28 points. As the Kavanaugh hearings play out this week, that number could get even bigger.

If Manning wins, her victory will underscore the realignment taking place in our politics. The district is evenly split between Democrats and Republicans in registration at about 35% each and unaffiliated voters making up 28%. Traditionally in North Carolina, a district with numbers like these would be safe Republican. A Manning victory would signal that Reagan Democrats are gone from this part of the state and that unaffiliated voters are truly independent.

Manning has a base of African-Americans who make up 24% of the district and women outnumber men 54% to 46%. She’ll need around 35% of the white vote to win the district if African-Americans vote their registration. The race will come down to turnout. If Democrats are as motivated in NC-13 as they seem nationally, she’s got a shot at unseating an incumbent.