House District 36 – Rep. Nelson Dollar (R) vs. Lisa Baker (D)

House District 36 includes part of Cary, the community of Swift Creek, parts of Fuquay-Varina, and parts of unincorporated Southern Wake County. It is currently represented by Nelson Dollar, who was first elected to the NC House in 2004. Dollar is one of the top Republicans in that chamber and probably won’t have much trouble getting reelected this year. Some say he could be a dark horse candidate for Speaker of the House after Tillis steps down.

First, a little history: this district was once David Miner’s, a moderate Republican whose district encompassed most of Southwestern Wake County. His seat was made strongly Republican as a result of the 2004 redistricting. This may have been Miner’s downfall: conservatives had been grumbling about him for years, and were outraged when Miner became a key ally of the moderate House leadership. In an ugly campaign, the more conservative Dollar prevailed over Miner in a landslide, a defeat that observers considered a sign of the rightward shift of the state GOP. Democrats, anticipating a candidacy by the moderate Miner, did not even put up a challenger, and Dollar romped to victory against a Libertarian.

With Dollar being more of a conservative and the Cary part of the district getting bluer, things changed here in a hurry. The 2006 Democratic wave election boosted Democrats across the board and Dollar won reelection that year by less than 2 points. Dollar had a similarly close reelection in 2008. Two years later, in the red wave of 2010, Dollar had a much easier campaign, crushing his Democratic opponent, Robin Anderson, by 18 points.

The 2011 redistricting was favorable to Dollar, mostly as a result of him helping to draw the maps. The district lost some of the bluer downtown Cary precincts and took more of rural Southern Wake County. There are still a few Triangle progressive-types and swingy moderates in the district but they’re almost completely drowned out by the red precincts in the more rural, southeastern portions of Wake County.

Map of North Carolina House District 36, currently occupied by Rep. Nelson Dollar (R-Cary).

Even so, if recent history is anything to go by, this district will become bluer with time. Already, the district is somewhat competitive – Democrats just need a really strong candidate and a really good year to allow them to take out Dollar. Two years ago, they didn’t have either of those things. The Democrats’ initial nominee dropped out in early August and in the end they went with Lisa Baker, who was underfunded and lacked political experience. In the end, the incumbent won with just under 55% of the vote.

Now, Baker is back for a rematch. If there’s a backlash against the state legislature, then things could get interesting here, but it’d be a huge upset if Dollar were to go down. Democrats hope this is a district that will trend blue and prove to be competitive by the end of the decade, but there’s no real cause for optimism here until 2016 at the very earliest. Therefore, I’m pegging this as Likely Republican.

Counties in district: Wake (part)

District Rating: Likely Republican

2012 Result
55.0% Dollar (R)
45.0% Baker (D)

Voter Registration
36.6% Republican
32.5% Unaffiliated
30.5% Democrat

84.3% White
8.6% Other
7.1% Black

Results in Other Elections
2012 President
53.9% Romney
44.9% Obama

2012 Governor
59.3% McCrory
37.9% Dalton

2010 Senate
58.9% Burr
38.6% Marshall

2008 Senate
49.6% Dole
47.0% Hagan

Social Media Support
Lisa Baker – 300
Rep. Nelson Dollar – 36