Now-former Senator Hagan is considering running against her old colleague, Richard Burr. Ultimately, I don’t think she’ll pull the trigger and most political observers seem to share that opinion. I think if she could wave a magic wand and become U.S. Senator again she would do so, but I doubt she wants to go through another campaign like the one she just went through. A race against a seasoned incumbent like Burr would probably be an even more uphill climb than last year, even with the benefit of presidential turnout.

Still, most losing politicians feel some need to redeem themselves by once again winning the approval of the voters who tossed them out last time, and in the end this impulse might be too much for her to resist. As she’s considering a bid, she’s probably thinking what running, or not running, will do for her legacy. There are really three scenarios:

1. Scenario One – She doesn’t run. Not running would probably disappoint the DSCC, but it would give her a welcome break from public life and allow her to spend time doting on her grandchildren. Hagan passing up on a Senate race means she probably won’t be returning to the upper chamber, unless she runs against Tillis in 2020, when she’ll be 67. She’ll go down as a one-term Senator who slayed a political giant in Elizabeth Dole, then surpassed all expectations and just narrowly lost reelection in a huge Republican wave.

2. Scenario Two – She runs and wins. It’s conceivable. Even though fatigue with the president’s party usually sets in after two terms in the White House, 2016 could be a Democratic year, with a strong economy and a Hillary Clinton landslide. Add in a couple of missteps by Senator Burr and Hagan returns to office, redeemed by the voters, her 2014 defeat seen as a fluke. The return to the Senate gives her the opportunity to become the most influential NC Democrat at the national level.

3. Scenario Three – She runs and loses. While it’s not hard to see 2016 being a good Democratic year, history says that 2016 is more likely to favor Republicans. In such a scenario, Burr would be the favorite, especially if Obama is unpopular. Hagan currently has a poor image with NC voters and would need to do some work in repairing that image. Hagan loses to Burr, who doesn’t have any trouble tying her to Obama. If that happens, it’s Hagan’s initial victory that is seen as a fluke, and her rejection in 2014 seen as no accident.

Hagan doesn’t strike me as a risk-taker – heck, just look at how much work it took to convince her to run in the first place. Right now, I think she’s in “wait and see” mode. If Republicans in Congress overreach and their standing with voters deteriorates, 2016 might start to look like a Democratic year, in which case Hagan might decide the risk is worth it. But she has to decide soon – by springtime, it looks like – and I don’t think that’ll be enough time for the political environment to change substantially. For that reason, and because the toll another bid would take on her family, I think Hagan is going to remain on the sidelines, an observer of national politics instead of a participant once again.