We got the first good news about the pandemic that we’ve had in weeks. The number of new cases seems to be leveling off and the number of deaths projected has been reduced significantly. We’re still on schedule to lose more than 60,000 Americans between now and August, but that’s a lot better than losing 200,000.
Social distancing is working. We are giving the virus fewer opportunities to infect people and slowing its spread. The reduction of new cases and the lower death rate is a response to our behavior and a reflection that most people are following the protocols recommended by experts, not because the virus isn’t as deadly as they thought.
The initial estimates were based on leaving the economy running and keeping society open. Had we done that, we would likely see hospitals across the country overwhelmed like the ones in New York. The estimates of up to 2 million people dead weren’t overblown. They were just scary enough to make government officials take drastic action.
Even the estimate of 60,000 people dead assumes that we will continue to keep society locked down through August. The virus will continue to infect and kill people until there’s either a cure or a vaccine. That could be more than a year away. Before then, we will probably see far more than 60,000 dead and we’ll probably see surges as people relax their social distancing practices.
Our focus now should be on what’s next. We can’t keep the economy closed or people isolated for months. Those behaviors bring their own unpleasant consequences. Massive testing is the answer but we need the tests. We need tests that determine whether people are currently carrying the virus and ones that show whether people have had it and are now immune. The focus should be producing those tests and distributing them across the country. We can then shift toward isolating people who are infected instead of the whole country and using people with immunity to help care for them.
For those who insist on the political angle, there’s plenty of time to cast blame. The United States was clearly unprepared for the pandemic and our reaction time was far slower than it should have been. There’s no guarantee that it would have been that much better under any other president. Trump’s problem is that he made too many statements that were too wrong and kept doubling down on them. He long ago lost the benefit of the doubt because of his penchant for prevarication.
Joe Biden is catching heat from some people for not stepping up. However, he’s doing just what he should do. He can’t compete the President’s daily press briefings or even with governors who are on the front lines. He’s offering criticism and comfort on the small stage of the internet and that’s just fine. Trump is making outlandish statements in the middle of a pandemic, contradicting experts and bragging about TV ratings. To paraphrase Lee Atwater, never interfere with an opponent who is self-destructive.
We’re flattening the curve. That’s good news and reflective of the actions we’ve taken, not poor productions from experts. To move forward, we need to figure out how to protect our health while reopening society. Testing is the best answer until we have a cure or vaccine. Finally, the politics of the response will play out next fall. Your hot take today may prove to be cold water next month.
I’d b cautious about the post-recovery immunity angle. The second wave of COVID-19 hasn’t hit, but it will and it won’t be until it does that we know for sure how resistant those who have already recovered actually are. There’s reason to think that the antibodies that were produced to fight off the initial infection will make those who have recovered more resistant, and even that plasma form those patients can help other patients recover more quickly. But nobody knows or certain yet how long that resistance will last, because we don’t know a hell of a lot about this virus at all. What we DO know is that other coronaviruses like the ones that cause the common cold are seasonal, and getting over a cold doesn’t keep us from catching another one — even in the same season. But COVID-19 doesn’t seem to mutate as fast as most RNA viruses, and that may be the biggest advantage we have in finding an effective vaccine and treatment for it. The down side of that is that it makes it less likely that it will eventually mutate into something less virulent.
But there is one thing we can absolutely rely on in this situation, and that is that the Tangerine Peril will find some way to blame Joe Biden for the pandemic, and his flock will slavishly follow his lead. It doesn’t matter what kind of mental contortions it takes, they will believe every word, and denounce any evidence to the contrary as fake news or a deep state hoax. It’s already happened in other contexts, and this one will be no different. The only hope we have is to outnumber the imbeciles in November by so much that even the Russians can’t save him.
Thanks for the reminder and the accuracy of your comment.
Thank you, Thomas, for a savvy comment.
I do believe any other president would have had the nation better prepared than the dolt in the White House. He has no credibility with most Americans because he lies incessantly. A president needs credibility in times of crisis because, at its base, the U.S. presidency is all about moral leadership. Trump long, long ago lost any claim to moral leadership. He is a liar and con man, the most corrupt public official in my lifetime.