The Washington Post reports this morning that Democrats are shifting their message to highlight expanding the middle class after polling shows them lagging Republicans on the economy. Polls in May showed voters believe Trump did a better job handling the economy than Biden by a margin of 54% to 36%. Voters also believe that Democrats spend too much time on “cultural and social issues.” Retooling the message as the economy is growing and inflation is waning is a smart move.
A message only works if it’s true and Democrats have a strong argument to make that they are better on the economy than the GOP. The economy grew at 2.4% in the second quarter, outstripping predictions of 1.8% and four points higher than the first quarter. Unemployment is hitting record lows in states across the country while the job market remains strong. The stock market is up after a slow spring. And year-over-year inflation is now at 3%, down from a high of 9%, and just above the Fed’s target of 2%.
Most significantly, consumer confidence is up to its highest level in three years and job satisfaction is higher than it’s been in almost 40 years. Those are measures of economic security. People feel good about where they are financially. While they say they prefer Trump’s economy right now, that opinion is likely to change over the next few months.
Voters’ opinion on economic matters seem to be lagging indicators. They start embracing the good news or complaining about the bad news about six months after the fact. Right now, they’re still sore about high inflation, but they are clearly getting over it, as indicated by the consumer confidence index, job satisfaction, and the surge of working-age people entering the workforce. Those indicators present a picture of an optimistic populace.
Democrats’ adjustment of their message will mirror the shift from pessimism or uncertainty to broad satisfaction. As people begin to feel confident that good times will be here for a while, they’ll start to give credit to party in the White House, just like they blamed Biden and the Democrats for their malaise driven by high inflation. Democrats just need to hope that the good news holds.
Republicans, for their part, seem to be putting all of their eggs into the Hunter Biden basket. With their likely nominee facing numerous charges for corruption and with more indictments likely coming, they don’t have much to run on. They are trying to muddy the water by accusing Democrats of being just a corrupt as they are. McCarthy even mentioned impeaching Biden this week. He needs to read “Brer Rabbit and Briar Patch.”
Democrats find themselves in a strong position this summer. While the election is a long way off, economic indicators are moving in the right direction. The economy is strong, inflation is waning, and people are starting to feel good about their financial situations. The party needs to avoid getting drug into culture war fights that distract from the concerns of most Americans. And they need to hope that Republicans continue to focus on Hunter Biden and defending Donald Trump.
Right now, Democrats are in a much stronger position than Republicans and they are honing their message appropriately to connect with voters. We’ll see what the fall and winter hold.
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all fifty states. Personal income, in current dollars, increased in forty-eight states. Manufacturing in the United States has reached record highs. Folks can buy American made products. Unemployment is at record lows; anybody can get a job. Government spending has dropped. Government sponsored COVID vaccinations have all but eliminated folks dying. Yet there are folks out there believe, Biden is incompetent, senile unable to discharge the duties of his office.
They believe a twice impeached, indicted, and passed on judicially rapist, adulterer, and target of an insurrection investigation and liar who is running for office to stay out of jail will drain the swamp. What went wrong? Did the educational system fail to instill in these folks the ability to analyze, evaluate and reach a logical conclusion based on the facts?
For some folks, thinking can be a painful experience. They are ready to believe Biden is a product of AI, being manipulated by Communists, and Marxist to take away their guns. They obsess over a bag of cocaine found in the visitor area of the White House as being linked to Biden’s son. Yet their favorite musician or televangelist minister can be in trouble for possession or soliciting and still buy his or her songs or contribute to the minister’s program. Republican politicians can blame lizards from outer space for causing forest fires or Hillary ran a child porn operation out of the nonexistent basement of a pizza restaurant in DC, these folks will believe them. They are willing to destroy democracy and replace it with ante woke. Sad our country has become a place where the cult of twisted personal values has replaced Christian principles, concern for equality and common sense.
When you talk about the economy and the opinions of “people” typically they are thinking of two things immediately. Gas and groceries. People blame Joe for gas prices being where they are. And groceries are not cheap by any stretch either.
What Democrats should do is show how gas prices trend with the price of oil; specifically, Brent sweet crude. Energy prices are tied to groceries due to the cost of planting, cultivating, harvesting, and transporting. Fertilizers are petrochemicals. Then look at domestic production versus how much crude we import over and above our consumption and ask why our leading exports include refined petroleum products. Are we paying the price at the pump to subsidize the cost just so oil companies can make money? Then there’s the Saudis. Our friends. Every time the price per barrel dips, the crown prince (I used small letters on purpose) cuts production to boost price. If that is how we define ‘friend’ and ‘ally,’ I’d love to see what Merriam Webster has to say about ‘enemy.’
While inflation is slowing, it is still relatively high and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again. When was the last time you saw a major automobile manufacturer offer zero percent financing on a new car or truck?
Yes, Joe has done a good job with the economy to the extent that he can. All the blonde bomber did was cut taxes for the wealthy and himself, officially. Unofficially, prices on gas were kept in check as was the price of food. Let’s face it, every time someone stops for gas, it serves as a jab and reminder as few things can.
I say all this realizing that the pandemic was a major event in the history of the nation and the social, economic, and geopolitical impact was unique in its effect just short of world war, famine, and economic depression.
Somehow, I think those specifics need to be addressed in that message. And you’re quite correct as usual. Democrats DO spend too much time being social warriors and not enough being common man friendly. It’s changed quite a bit with Joe. But not a bold delineation of direction. Kinda of a meandering that way. But it’s a start.
Oh, welcome back! I read the highlights of your trip and it looked astounding.
On-point as usual, Thomas. Except I can’t agree with the part when you said “a message only works if it’s true.” It certainly HELPS if it’s true, but Republicans have shown us otherwise too many times to count.