Much has changed since the 1960s, when Jesse Helms opposed a state zoo on the basis that one could be constructed just by putting up a fence around Chapel Hill. But through the decades, Chapel Hill’s reputation as a bastion of liberalism in a somewhat conservative state remains intact. And it’s chock full of the kind of voters that make up the base of the self-described socialist Bernie Sanders: highly-educated, young, progressive, and heavily white.
But if a recent poll from Public Policy Polling is any indication, Chapel Hill isn’t feeling the Bern. He trails Hillary Clinton in the town, getting 30% to her 35%. While that’s much better than his national average, the fact that he’s behind in such ostensibly friendly territory shows just what difficulties lie ahead for him and his campaign.
If Sanders is trailing in Chapel Hill, he’s probably way behind in the state as a whole, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. States with a high percentage of black voters are going to be tough places for Sanders to get traction. The Chapel Hill poll attests to this: Sanders is the choice of 32% of white voters and only 8% of black voters. The sample size is tiny but it confirms other data showing the senator from Vermont very weak with one of the most critical voting blocs in the Democratic primary.
Interestingly, it’s not Hillary who’s ahead with African Americans in this poll. It’s Joe Biden. Again, the caveats about the small sample size apply. But it does appear that serving as Obama’s vice president has earned him some goodwill from black voters, despite his sometimes goofy statements. This could be why the Clinton campaign appears to be worried about a Biden entry: he carries the risk of splitting the black vote and making her route to the nomination more treacherous.
The good news for Sanders: he’s tied with Hillary for the votes of men and leads everyone with the youngest voters and with self-described independents. (In other words, demographics that are less likely to actually vote.)
A Biden entry is still hypothetical. What’s not hypothetical is that Sanders should have the voters of towns like Chapel Hill in the bag if he wants to seriously contest the Democratic nomination. Right now, he doesn’t. For that reason, I would bet on Biden as the real “anti-Hillary” to watch in this race.
Here’s an article from 2008 entitled why “Obama can’t win in November) About as credible as Thomas Mill’s proclamation about Bernie Sanders “unelectability.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2015316/posts
For the record, this is what I said about Obama in 2008. I don’t see many parallels with Sanders. http://www.batesandmills.com/page/the-obama-factor-in-north-carolina
Really, Thomas? You don’t see many parallels? Well then, let me show you some.
Like Barack Obama Bernie Sanders is inspiring a vast population of previously uninvolved voters to get passionately involved in the political process- only more so, I would say. Like Obama the news media and Clinton campaign grossly under-estimates the strength of his resonating message and the grassroots effort that is propelling his candidacy- only more so, for Sanders. Like Obama (and this sends a painful tremor down the spines of the Clinton campaign) once the African-American community learns about who Sanders is (and they will), his history with the Civil Rights Movement, his agenda on criminal justice, income disparity, free public higher education, universal health care- he will receive 60-70% of the vote in that community in every state north and south. Likewise the Hispanic community.
Look, I will vote for Hillary Clinton if she wins the Democratic nomination because of the Supreme Court appointments for which the next President will likely be responsible. But, that severe compromise is increasingly less likely to be necessary as Bernie Sanders continues to gain strength. It’s not often that we get to vote for someone who is authentic AND powerful enough to win. Time to get behind Bernie.
Pretty risky wager there, Thomas. Actually, it’s remarkable that Bernie is already polling at 30% given the fact that his campaign hasn’t yet been active in North Carolina and most voters aren’t yet familiar with him. This bodes ill for the floundering Clinton campaign.
Sooner or later you and the other Clinton operatives will have to face up to the fact that Sanders is now the front runner and it’s not likely you’ll be able to stop his growing momentum. Sanders is already polling better than Clinton against all the potential Republican opponents- even without 30% of voters nationwide being familiar with him. The fact that you’re going to such transparent lengths to attempt to minimize his strength, only further proves the point that Clinton, the DNC, North Carolina and America are feeling the Berne. Don’t worry, we’ll let down a rope when you’re ready to get on board after Bernie wins in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Then we’ll all ride the big boat together to victory in November 2016.
As someone who was in and out of Chapel Hill in the early 70’s, lived there in the late 70’s, the zoo comment had to be the funniest words to ever come out of our hateful former senator’s mouth. Having left Chapel for Asheville, I often say the same thing about my beloved town in terms of building a zoo in WNC. I love zoos.
Chapel Hill is no longer the quaint, hippie, progressive enclave of the past. It’s run by yuppie, establishment Dems who represent the wealthy corporate interest. Clinton is the best candidate, for wealthy liberals, that the corporate interest can produce, but average working people don’t want a plutocracy, we want a life and a future for our kids and grandkids. The Democrat establishment will do their best to crush Bernie like they did to Howard Dean, George McGovern and Jackson, but I hope, for our children’s sake it fails. We need real leaders who will honestly deal with climate change, the military industrial machine, inequality and race relations, single-payer health care plus so much more. And YES it can be done with the support from the US people who are the government, not the corporations who want to buy it. I went to the Bernie rally in Greensboro and there were a lot of younger adults but plenty of middle-aged adults like me and older adults….people need more than “the first women president”. Clinton and Sanders are not the same.
Hillary Clinton could very well win and become the first women president. So many fair weather democrats who are hyped up on the candidate of the second or wannabe hipsters who begin to drool over Bernie Sanders five minutes ago seem to have forgotten Clinton’s tireless work as a advocate for women and children around the world. They’ve forgotten her speech in Beijing 20 years ago and her speech for LGBT rights at the UN in 2012. Sanders and Clinton have pretty much the same stance on the issues. The time is better than ever before for a qualified woman candidate who is the best of the bunch.
What I can’t forget are the decades of support Hillary had given Monsanto and RoundUp as well as the 1%. Look at Bernies voting record and history of support on civil rights and the environment. When we look at Hillary we see Monsanto and her stock in La Farge, a Texas cement kiln that wanted to burn French radioactive waste in their incinerators. That’s not a good investment for a politician that cares about the environment. Granted Hillary sold her stock in La Farge, but what possessed her in the first place?
I agree it’s time for a woman candidate, but the woman we need has decided not to run. Elizabeth Warren could win easily. Clinton is too tied to the traditional money interests to bring about serious campaign finance reform, and that’s what we need for the political climate to really improve.
Have your say, Mr. Wynne. All one needs to know is that on election day 2016, it will be HRC or Biden or Sanders leading the Dem ticket against some passenger on the GOP Clown Car. And in NC, that’s a very winnable prospectus. Do you actually think that those Dems who lean towards one of their current candidates in particular are going to vote for Trump or Fiorina or Carson or Cruz because their fav wasn’t nominated??
Since this is a poll of voters in Chapel Hill that will participate in the upcoming municipal races, it’s going to skew a bit older and establishment-oriented than the younger crowds that might participate in a competitive Dem primary. But I admit that I am somewhat surprised that the Chapel Hill moonbats aren’t overwhelmingly Bernie Sanders voters.
Perhaps it has more to do with the political leadership in CH and Orange County. It’s very establishment there – very Jim Hunt and HRC.
I think that this is a little off base. I feel that when his campaign rolls in we’ll see a major bump in his numbers, similar to what we’ve seen in Iowa & New Hampshire. He still is not well known by primary voters in NC. You must also take into account the first time voters he has been attracting that won’t show up on the ‘likely primary voter’ rolls.
I realize that you have to write about something, however.