A recent poll by the Republican National Committee shows that Trump’s attack on the media and his assertion that a “red wave” is coming in November leaves much of the GOP dismissing the possibility that Democrats will take back the House. They think the hype around polling showing Democratic momentum is just “fake news.” Consequently, many do not see the midterms as important elections, leaving GOP strategists worried about turnout in November.

These perceptions are also reinforced by the bubbles we live in. Republicans are talking to Republicans who tell them everything is fine, while Democrats are talking to Democrats who assure themselves a blue wave is coming. We’ve seen it in every election cycle since 2102.

The 2012 fight over Amendment One that banned same sex marriage gave me the first sense of the bubbles in North Carolina. In my liberal enclave of Carrboro, Vote No signs dotted lawns across town. Nobody I knew supported the amendment and most people were sure it would go down in defeat. And most of the Triangle looked the same way.

However, a drive through the country to Anson County reversed the perception. Every other yard had a “Vote Yes” sign and Vote No signs were almost non-existent. Everybody I talked to down there assumed it would pass easily. And it did.

I saw a similar reaction in the 2014 midterms. People across the Triangle were sure Democrats would win a lot of seats in General Assembly, possibly taking control. Moral Monday had fired up the base. The state had gotten tons of negative publicity for bills that moved the state hard to the right. Progressives could just feel the backlash.

But it never materialized. Democratic turnout went up a little and Democrats did slightly better than the nation as a whole, but no large scale backlash washed Democrats back into power. GOP turnout was still considerably higher, leaving them firmly in control.

In 2016, it happened again. With a strong gubernatorial candidate on the Democratic side and a crazy Republican presidential candidate on the other, Democrats felt North Carolina would return to its 2008 status as the emerging progressive force. Instead, Roy Cooper barely squeezed by and Donald Trump won the state by the largest margin since George W. Bush in 2004.

Again, this year feels different. Progressives are motivated in reaction to Donald Trump, left-leaning women are fired up by the #MeToo movement and Democrats have recruited top-tier candidates up and down the ballot.  Anecdotally, I hear stories from folks knocking on doors who say people who traditionally vote Republican are committing to voting Democratic in November.

And the polls seem to confirm it. Democrats have a substantial lead in the national generic ballot and, in North Carolina polls, the middle appears to be breaking for Democrats. Republicans living outside of metropolitan areas, though, don’t believe it. They’re still confident the GOP will do fine in November.

On election night, somebody is going to be shocked. If Democrats take control of Congress, Republicans will have to reckon with their faith in the president and that all bad news for the GOP is fake. If the GOP retains control of Congress, Democrats who are sure they have the momentum will need to take a hard look at themselves to understand what has happened in almost every election since 2008. Right now, both sides living in their respective bubbles are optimistic about their prospects in November. One side will be very disappointed.